Jakarta, JURNAL TIPIKOR— Jelang Pemilihan Presiden (Pilpres) tahun 2024, beberapa Lembaga Survei sudah melakukan Pooling.
Hasil survei terbaru Poltracking Indonesia menempatkan Prabowo Subianto sebagai calon presiden dengan elektabilitas tertinggi.
Bahkan elektabilitas Prabowo lebih tinggi dari dua calon presiden lainnya, Gubernur Jawa Tengah Ganjar Pranowo dan mantan Gubernur DKI Jakarta Anies Baswedan.
Survei tersebut dilakukan pada 9-15 April 2023 atau sebelum PDI Perjuangan mendeklarasikan Ganjar sebagai kandidat calon presiden. Dalam survei dengan simulasi 20 nama, Prabowo menempati posisi pertama dengan perolehan elektabilitas 28,8 persen, sementara Ganjar menguntit di belakangnya dengan elektabilitas 27,5 persen.
Berdasarkan Lembaga Survei, Prabowo Memiliki Elektabilitas Tertinggi Dibanding Ganjar dan Anis
“Prabowo dan Ganjar terpaut tipis di margin of error. Tapi relatif Pak Prabowo di atas Ganjar,” kata Direktur Eksekutif Poltracking Indonesia Hanta Yuda dalam konferensi persnya, Jumat (28/4).
Selanjutnya, Anies yang jadi bakal calon presiden dari Koalisi Perubahan untuk Persatuan berada di posisi ketiga dengan elektabilitas 19,3 persen. Kemudian, ada juga nama seperti Ridwan Kamil (3 persen), Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (2,8 persen), hingga Erick Thohir (2,3 persen).
Menurut Hanta nama Prabowo juga masih unggul ketimbang Ganjar dan Anies dalam simulasi 10 nama dan tiga nama kandidat capres.
Iwan Bule dan Syaiful Huda Siap Maju di Pilgub Jabar 2024
Ia menuturkan elektabilitas Prabowo mengalami kenaikan signifikan pada April daripada bulan-bulan sebelumnya. Sementara Anies stabil dari bulan-bulan sebelumnya dan Ganjar elektabilitasnya masih fluktuasi.
“Ganjar sempat naik turun. Ada dinamika batalnya Piala Dunia U-20. Tapi jangan lupa Ganjar baru dideklarasikan, ada potensi Ganjar sekarang bisa naik,” jelasnya.
Ia memprediksi bakal sulit muncul nama capres lain karena elektabilitas Ganjar, Prabowo dan Anies unggul jauh ketimbang kandidat lainnya. Pasalnya, nama-nama lain tingkat elektabilitasnya masih di bawah lima persen.
“Ini konfirmasi peta elektoral Pilpres jadi sulit muncul nama di luar nama ini. Ini mungkin bisa jadi pertimbangan Golkar, karena pusaran elektabilitas jadi poin penting capres,” ujar Hanta.
Responden survei Poltracking Indonesia merupakan warga Indonesia berusia 17 tahun ke atas. Survei dilakukan melalui wawancara tatap muka langsung dengan responden.
Pemilihan sampel dilakukan melalui metode multistage random sampling. Dengan teknik ini, sampel diambil sebanyak 1.220 responden. Margin of error survei di kisaran kurang lebih 2,9 persen pada tingkat kepercayaan 95 persen.
(Red/CNN)
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